When last we checked in with checkered GOP Congressional candidate Mike Erickson, he was busy denying allegations that he used to throw wild cocaine parties on his private yacht, claiming to have had no idea what cocaine looks like:
"I've never used cocaine. I wouldn't know what it looks like," Erickson said, adding that he has never used illegal drugs or tobacco.
That's as may be (though if it's true, I can only wonder if Erickson has been to the movies since 1975, or uses baking soda). However, the Oregonian has come out with evidence that Erickson is certainly no stranger to the high life.
Mike Erickson, Republican candidate for the U.S. House, made a six-day visit to Cuba in 2004 that he described as a "humanitarian trip" to help disabled Cubans oppressed by Fidel Castro. But the visit was actually a vacation that included marlin fishing, nightclub visits and Cuban cigars.
See, Erickson has been boasting that he traveled to Cuba to provide aid and comfort to the oppressed multitudes:
Four years ago I was given an opportunity to make a humanitarian trip to Cuba, providing medical supplies and equipment to the disabled and Cuba's impoverished. The Cuban American Alliance Education Fund was looking for donors to help raise money and deliver supplies and equipment to Cuba's less fortunate. I was able to purchase badly needed medical supplies and equipment from the US and bring them to Cuba's disabled and poverty stricken communities.
The trip also provided me the opportunity to see firsthand just how horrific Castro's stronghold on the nation had oppressed and mistreated people. The living conditions and healthcare were horrible.
Yeah, but see, the Oregonian obtained a copy of Erickson's itinerary for the trip. It seems difficult to imagine him having much time for humanitarian activities, fitting them in between such enjoyable pastimes as
- Mojitos and cigars at cocktail hours
- Dove shooting
- Cock fighting
- Cigar conventions and a tour of a notable cigar factory
- Rides in vintage automobiles
- Lodging in five-star hotels
- And the creme de la creme, the centerpiece of the trip..."Comandante Fidel Castro's Annual Gala Cigar Dinner And Auction".
Well. That is a lot of cigars, for someone who has claimed never to have used tobacco.
It's also a lot of leisurely activities for someone traveling to Cuba for "humanitarian" purposes. Since, you know, actually vacationing there is forbidden.
Oh, and Erickson's trip was not sponsored by the "Cuban American Alliance Education Fund", but rather by an organization called "Safari Clubs International". They may be in hot water themselves, as the most damning part of their itinerary indicates:
I will provide each person with the information on how to acquire the travel license if they want to fulfill the obligations set forth under a humanitarian license. If not, I provide itemized, personal, hotel receipts and leter from concierge from the Hyatt Regency in Cancun, Mexico to show a proof of visit to Mexico not Cuba from February 25 Marc 2, 2004.
I believe this is also called "forging documents". Which is, I am told, very illegal.
So here is a candidate for the United States House of Representatives, who went on a $1700, top-shelf vacation to Cuba, hung out at Fidel Castro's gala parties, gamed the system by calling it a humanitarian trip, and traveled with an organization which offered to illegally forge papers for its guests.
Any guesses on what might have happened if a Democrat had done this?
It's been a while since my last House diary, and I just know you've been sitting there wondering "when will Nathaniel publish his next House roundup diary? I can't live without my fix, and he's just so...incisive...and brilliant...and downright Lincolnesque." (h/t to Stephen Colbert for that.)
Well, pine no more! As always, seats are ranked by flippability, but since House races are so numerous (at 435), I eventually switch to alphabetical order after the first 18 races. I figured 18 was a convenient number...and I also got lazy after writing about Alaska At Large.
[I was having Internet troubles yesterday, which is why the roundup is going up today. My apologies! -brownsox]
NC-Sen: Still more exciting polling news out of North Carolina's Senate race: Republican Elizabeth Dole leads Democrat Kay Hagan by just two points, 45% to 43%.
Meanwhile, the venerable Cook Political Report has moved their rating of North Carolina's Senate race to "Likely Republican". Current momentum is certainly with Hagan, and it's already a close race, so there's every reason to feel good about our chances. In fact, I think this ranking is slightly conservative: Swing State Project has moved their ranking of NC-Sen to "Leans Republican", and I'd have to go along with that.
MS-Sen: Meanwhile, in the wake of dueling polls showing a tight race in Mississippi (one of them showing Democrat Ronnie Musgrove leading by 8 points, the other showing Republican Roger Wicker up by four), Cook has moved their ranking of MS-Sen all the way from "Likely Republican" to "Toss Up".
Having a top-tier Senate race in Mississippi is remarkable, and having that race called as a tossup nearly six months before the election is even more so. I think Cook's ranking may be very slightly generous-I'd call the race "Lean Republican", but it makes a good bit of sense.
NH-Sen: Rasmussen has released their latest poll out of New Hampshire, and it shows Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leading Republican incumbent John Sununu by seven points, 50% to 43%. In April, the numbers looked almost the same, with Shaheen leading 51% to 43%.
The polling numbers, particularly from Rasmussen, have been exceptionally stable, and they've consistently shown Shaheen with a substantial lead. I don't think she has this race locked down, not by a long shot, but what's not to like about a consistent lead?
OR-Sen: Well, that didn't take long; the Dark Side is already astroturfing Oregon papers with ads attacking Democratic Senate candidate Jeff Merkley.
An anti-union group run out of a Washington, D.C., lobbyist’s office has taken out full-page ads in Oregon’s two biggest daily newspapers questioning Senate candidate Jeff Merkley’s support for a change in how unions are formed.
The ads in The Register-Guard and The Oregonian Thursday argue against the "card-check" method of winning employee approval for unionizing private workplaces. Merkley, a Democrat, supports federal legislation allowing the card-check approach, while the Republican senator he is challenging, Gordon Smith, has opposed it.
Meanwhile, Merkley and his primary opponent, Steve Novick, held a unity event yesterday morning, enabling Oregon Democrats to turn their attention to the common cause of taking out Gordon Smith.
House Races
UT-02: Jim Matheson drinks your milkshake. He drinks it up!
Matheson continues to drive Utah GOP leaders nuts with his 2nd District popularity.
Bless him.
NY-13: In the fight to save the seat of disgraced incumbent Vito Fossella, the GOP is now 0-for-2 in recruiting. The island's great Republican prize, Richmond County DA Daniel Donovan, opted out of the race first, only to be joined by county clerk Stephen Fiala:
Republican County Clerk Stephen Fiala has taken his name out of the running to replace Rep. Vito Fossella (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn) in the House of Representatives.
"My best judgment has led me to the decision not to run for Congress," Fiala told the Advance.
Fiala said he was concerned about his ability to raise money for the race and looking down the road, said he believed that the congressional district would be redrawn to favor a Democrat after the 2010 census.
This leaves State Senator Andrew Lanza as the leading GOP candidate should he decide to run. That's just fine by New York Democrats, who are fighting to gain control of the State Senate.
Meanwhile, Democratic Sen. Diane Savino also will not run, which should help us avoid a primary and a State Senate opening.
AL-02, AL-03, AL-05: The Democratic tide has spread well into "red Alabama", as the Press-Register Reports. We have two, perhaps three hot House races in the state, including two pickup opportunities. I'd consider both of those long shots, but viable nonetheless, AL-02 especially.
But the 2nd Congressional District in Alabama's Wiregrass region is emerging as a surprise battleground.
Republicans have held the seat since 1965. After his first election in 1992, Everett never faced a serious challenge. In 2004, Bush carried the district, which includes Dothan and part of Montgomery, with 67 percent of the vote.
Between the two major parties, a total of nine candidates are now jostling for a chance at the seat in the June 3 primaries. But Democrats claimed a coup earlier this year when Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright chose to run under their banner after being courted by both parties. Campaign disclosure reports show that Bright is already attracting contributions from national party power-brokers such as House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md.
After the Democratic pick- ups in Louisiana and Mississippi, a Bright victory would "absolutely represent the next step in this march," said John Anzalone, a Montgomery pollster who is working for Bright and was also involved in the other two campaigns.
Bright had initially lagged in the fundraising game, but he has picked it up of late, as Swing State Project reports. National Democrats are very excited about Bright's candidacy.
Meanwhile, in the 5th District, things are looking good in our attempt to hold the seat of retiring Democrat Bud Cramer, despite the district's R+6.5 PVI.
Democrats have also scored some breaks in the race for the conservative-leaning 5th Congressional District, which Cramer has represented since 1991. Republicans have long eyed the seat as a prime pick-up opportunity.
While both parties face contested primaries, the presumed Democratic front-runner is state Sen. Parker Griffith, a wealthy retired oncologist from Huntsville who has already secured Cramer's endorsement. The best-known candidate in the Republican field appears to be Wayne Parker, an insurance agency executive from Huntsville who twice lost to Cramer in the 1990s.
In the 3rd District, young Democrat Josh Segall is waging a surprisingly strong campaign against incumbent Republican Mike Rogers. Kossacks clammyc and thereisnospoon conducted a BlogTalkRadio interview with Segall today, as a matter of fact, so check that out to find more about one of the best dark-horse candidates this cycle.
OR-05: As Swing State Project and Daily Kos had done previously, the Cook Political Report has changed their rating of OR-05 to "Leans Democratic", a reflection that they have about as much faith in Mike "I Don't Know What Cocaine Looks Like" Erickson, as we do.
CA-11: Dean Andal, chief challenger to Democratic incumbent Rep. Jerry McNerney, has had an impressively bad time fundraising these last few months. In the month and a half since last filing, Andal has raised a grand total of $11,000.
That's eleven thousand whole dollars! This, despite having spent the vast majority of his time in the State Assembly hangin' with lobbyists, and having high-profile friends like John McCain to help him out.
Andal's sitting on over $500K on hand, so he isn't exactly broke. But the fact that he just raised $11K in six weeks, and just over $100K in 2008, has to be some comfort to Jerry McNerney.
OR-Sen: Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley narrowly defeated Steve Novick yesterday to win the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. This race inspired a lot of passion over the last several months on behalf of both candidates, and I credit both men for running impressive campaigns.
Best to Speaker Merkley as he takes on Republican Sen. Gordon Smith in the fall. There's some very good news on the polling fron; a DSCC poll shows Smith leading Merkley by just three points, 45% to 42%. Better yet, Smith's approvals are abominable; he receives just 29% job approval, with 55% disapproving.
That's a big window of opportunity for Merkley, if the polling is correct.
NC-Sen: Reinforcing all the other North Carolina polling of the last couple weeks, SUSA's latest shows Sen. Elizabeth Dole leading Democrat Kay Hagan by just four points, 50% to 46%.
All the polls can't be wrong; Dole is in a box of trouble this cycle. She knows it, too, as the former NRSC chairwoman is suddenly going to her opponent on bended knee, begging for her to refuse national money for her race.
TX-Sen: Republican Senator John Cornyn, the target of a new VoteVets ad urging him to vote for the 21st Century GI Bill, has lashed out at the veterans' organization, and VoteVets has responded:
In today's edition of Roll Call, Cornyn's spokesman responded to an ad launched by VoteVets.org calling on Cornyn to vote for a new GI Bill by saying, "The anti-war crowd is determined to use our men and women in uniform for their political advantage, even if our national security is jeopardized in the process."
In response, Brandon Friedman, an Iraq and Afghanistan Veteran from Dallas, and Vice Chair of VoteVets.org said, "Senator Cornyn's response to veterans is ignorant, insulting, and beneath his office. The GI Bill has nothing to do with the decision to go to war, or the course in Iraq, nor would it jeopardize security. The GI Bill was a sacred promise enacted by President Roosevelt, and all we are asking for is that America not default on that promise."
Friedman added, "Further, to accuse veterans of using ourselves as a political football is pernicious and absurd. Apparently, veterans do not have the right to ask Senator Cornyn to do the right thing, or else we'll be smeared. At least we now know what Senator Cornyn thinks of those of us who served this nation in combat."
I am really at a loss as to explain how lobbying for the GI Bill endangers our national security.
CO-Sen: kos wrote earlier about the latest Rasmussen polling, which shows Democrat Mark Udall leading his Republican opponent, Bob Schaffer, by six points, 47% to 41%.
Frankly, after Schaffer's recent misadventures (both his "Mt. Macaca moment", and his unpleasant ties to Jack Abramoff and the Northern Marianas scandal, I'd almost hoped for more. But this certainly isn't bad, and things are only going to get worse for Schaffer.
AK-Sen: Kossacks clammyc and thereisnospoon will be interviewing Senate candidate Mark Begich at 5 PM Eastern today on BlogTalkRadio, in the lastest instalment of an excellent series of candidate interviews. If you're able to tune in, please do.
As a positive (re)introduction spot, I feel it hits all those notes it's meant to about reminding us what we had, and by (John Sununu's) absence, what we can do without.
KY-Sen: Bruce Lunsford has won his primary handily over Greg Fischer, and heads into the general election against Mitch McConnell. The most recent round of polling showed McConnell under 50% against Lunsford, leading 48% to 36%. It's going to be an incredibly difficult battle for Lunsford (who I don't like very much to begin with), but hopefully he can make McConnell sweat a little, and keep him from utilizing his legendary fundraising prowess to aid other Republican Senate candidates.
House Races
OR-05: Despite last week's scandal involving allegations of cocaine use, mistresses and abortions (quite a trifecta there for conservatives), Mike Erickson has won his primary in Oregon's 5th, and will face off against Democrat Kurt Schrader in the race to succeed Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley. I'd call this race "lean Dem" at this point.
MO-06: In one of the hottest races in the country, Republican incumbent Sam Graves holds a holds a 10-point lead over Democrat Kay Barnes, 49% to 39%, according to SUSA. The good news is that Graves is under 50%, which leaves a good opening for Barnes here. The DCCC will be deeply invested in this race, so hopefully they can use their tremendous cash advantage to help Barnes close this gap.
CO-04: Despite the solidly Republican bent of this district, surprisingly close races are getting to be a Musgrave Ritual. The internal polls of Democratic candidate Betsy Markey show her leading her Republican opponent, the odious Marilyn Musgrave, by seven points, 43% to 36%.
The best response the Musgrave campaign could give? Their own internals show Musgrave leading 47% to 42%.
Frankly, with nearly six months before election day, I would not be trumpeting a poll that shows me leading an opponent with inferior name recognition by just five points. If I were the incumbent.
But then, Musgrave is maybe not the wisest Rep in DC.
NH-02: Jennifer Horn, candidate for the Republican nomination against freshman Democrat Paul Hodes, sports an impressive new endorsement: Jackie Mason's.
As Blue Hampshire's Dean Barker notes in a must-read piece, this is a tremendous victory for hilarity, if not for civility. This is the man whose endorsement Horn welcomes:
Giuliani Drops Comedian Over Remarks
By DON TERRY
Published: September 28, 1989
Rudolph W. Giuliani said yesterday that the comedian Jackie Mason would no longer have a role in his mayoral campaign, after a newspaper quoted Mr. Mason as making racially charged remarks about blacks and Jews.
...''There is a sick Jewish problem of voting for a black man no matter how unfit he is for the job,'' Mr. Mason said. ''All you have to do is to be black and don't curse the Jews directly and the Jew will vote for a black in a second. Jews are sick with complexes.''
He went on: ''The Jews are constantly giving millions of dollars to the black people. Have you ever heard of a black person giving a quarter to a Jew? I never heard a black person say we have to help the poor Jews.''
Man, you've got to be a real piece of work if Rudy Giuliani kicked you off his campaign twenty years ago. And this is just one of many such statements.
From Dean:
Absolutely, positively, the dumbest decision to trumpet an endorsement I have ever seen, inside or outside of New Hampshire. I've got no words for the magnitude of stoopid needed to think this was a wise campaign decision.
NY-13: The New York Times has a good article on the battle for the nomination to succeed Vito Fossella in this Staten Island-based district:
Shortly after Mr. Fossella announced his decision Tuesday, two Democrats from Staten Island said they were interested in the seat: Councilman Michael E. McMahon, who has represented northern Staten Island since 2002, and Michael Cusick, a state assemblyman who represents an area in the center of the island.
"I am having earnest discussions with the other folks who are interested and the county leaders in Staten Island and Brooklyn," Mr. McMahon said Tuesday. "I’m hopeful that we can come to a decision very quickly. Because of the short time frame, it’s important that we unite around a candidate rather than having a primary fight."
Similarly, Mr. Cusick said that "ultimately, the goal is to win in November" and that "it would be preferable not to have a primary and for the Democrats to work things out."
There is still Mr. Harrison, who ran against Mr. Fossella two years ago and did better than any previous challenger, winning 43 percent of the vote. Despite being overlooked by Democratic leaders in Brooklyn and on Staten Island, Mr. Harrison issued a statement after Mr. Fossella’s decision became public. "I have not been running against Vito Fossella," he said. "I have been running for Congress and I will continue to do so."
On the Republican side, Staten Island DA Daniel Donovan and State Sen. Andrew Lanza are the frontrunners. The excellent NY13 blog has a good breakdown of all the rumored and declared candidates in both parties, and is eminently worth reading.
The following is my evaluation of the Oregon Primary's winners and losers as well as some awards for the primary campaigns. I am referring not to candidates so much as to trends and groups that did well/didn't do well last night. Latest Update: Mannix concedes but refuses to endorse Mike Erickson, telling Politico ""I will not support him because he's a dishonest person and that's my bottom line," Mannix told the Politico. "I cannot support a dishonest campaign. I need to stick to my principles here, and he'll have to deal with it. That doesn't mean I'm endorsing or supporting the Democrat, but I'm not doing anything for him."
This is number ten in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole old growth forest. Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
And, hey, look at me! I’m a fifth of the way there already, on my tenth state! To celebrate (and now that we’ve finally picked a nominee for our top tier Senate race), I’m going to look at my home state of OREGON today!
Republican Mike Erickson, candidate for the nomination in Oregon's 5th District, has come under heavy fire lately from primary opponent Kevin Mannix, with rumors afloat that Erickson used to hold wild cocaine parties on his boat.
Well, Erickson flatly denies these scurrilous allegations; he's not only never used cocaine, but
"I've never used cocaine. I wouldn't know what it looks like," Erickson said, adding that he has never used illegal drugs or tobacco.
He doesn't know what cocaine looks like? He's never seen Beverly Hills Cop? He's never cooked with baking soda?
I had to snort at that one.
Call me a skeptic, but Erickson's denial just doesn't pass the smell test.
It would have been a bit more plausible if he just denied knowledge of the coke parties. Something like "If there's been cocaine use here, well, it's been happening right under my own nose."
Anybody else got a clever pun? A not-so-clever one?
In all seriousness, this is one of the most ridiculous statements we've seen yet this cycle. Either Erickson is a bald-faced liar, or a first-class moran. It's his choice as to which he'd rather be.
And please submit all coke-related Erickson jokes below!
The following is a preview of Oregon's statewide and congressional races, as well as the Portland mayoral race. It includes my current projections for what will happen if the votes were counted today.
I'm shocked. Depressed. The second week of February, Congresswoman Darlene Hooley announces she will not seen reelection. It has now been two months. It took four weeks after that for Kurt Schroeder to enter the race. He was quickly followed by Steve Marks.
The Oregonian today reported this disappointing news:
The race to replace retiring Rep. Darlene Hooley, a Democrat, in the U.S. House of Representatives also is attracting hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Republicans Mike Erickson of Lake Oswego and Kevin Mannix of Salem have collected the most. Erickson... raised $118,157 in the first quarter, not counting an additional $340,000 he lent to the campaign. Mannix... raised $109,445.
Democrats trying for Hooley's 5th District seat have raised far less money. Steve Marks... has raised $26,783 this year. That's similar to the $26,245 donated to Kurt Schrader...
(Disclosure: I removed reference to candidates' professions)
Since Oregon's candidate filing deadline was yesterday, it is now appropriate to take an early look at the 2008 outlook for elections in the Beaver State. Updated to reflect Brad Avakian's departure from the SOS race to take the Labor Commissioner job.
OR-5 is one of the few Democratic House vacancies this cycle that will be closely contested by Republicans, as the Democratic incumbent who is retiring, Darlene Hooley, has typically won about 55-45 or tighter since she first won the seat in 1996.
With Darlene's abrupt announcement of her retirement this month and the primary on May 20, the clock has been ticking on who will be the Democratic candidate to declare for the race, until now: State Sen. Kurt Schrader.
This is discouraging news. Oregon's Darlene Hooley has announced that she won't run for reelection this year, becoming the 67th Democrat to retire (28 Republicans are out).
Ironically, in a year when Democrats are expected to gain seats in the House, Hooley said she would have won if she ran and that political considerations factored into her decision.
"I think it will be easier to elect a Democrat this year, and I don't know about two years,'' she said.
Even so, Hooley said that when she informed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of her decision, both pressed her to reconsider.
"They did ask if there was anything that would change my mind,'' she said. "I told them 'no.' "
OR-05 is the state's toughest swing district. I volunteered there in 1990 for Mike Kopetski's winning campaign, and it was a hard slog. It incorporates a huge chunk of the Oregon coast, the state's capital, Mt. Hood, and some of Portland's suburbs. Just about every Oregon industry is represented in the district, and runs the gamit from extremely rural to urban, as well as extremely wealthy to pretty damned poor. The Republicans also have about a 5,000 registration advantage. Kopetski held the seat for two terms, then it flipped Republican. Hooley has held the seat since 1997.
While Hooley is probably correct in thinking this is a good year to bet on the district staying blue, her decision could have come earlier. The filing deadline for the seat is March 11, the primary in May. The legislature is in special session, so the likeliest of candidates--state legislators--are hampered by the fact that they would have to resign from the legislature to run because they can't raise money for a federal race, and any funds in a state account cannot be transferred to a federal account. PolitickerOR speculates that her chief of staff's husband, Paul Evans, will announce for the seat.
Hooley's Republican challenger in 2006, Mike Erickson, has already announced for the race. Erickson spent more than $1 million of his own money trying to beat her in 2006. He can continue to self-fund, which might make him an attractive candidate for the cash-strapped NRCC, but he's also had some baggage and ethics concerns. Not that that's stopped the Republicans before.
This will be one of the few open seats Republicans will feel they have a shot at, so expect it to become a top priority for both parties.
Update: DCCC Chair Van Hollen's statement (via e-mail):
"For more than a decade, Congresswoman Darlene Hooley has been a powerful voice for Oregon’s families, our troops, and our veterans. Her work to protect identity theft victims, curb the problem with methamphetamines, and to ensure our troops and veterans receive benefits that are worthy of their sacrifice is a proud legacy. We will miss her dedication, friendship, and most of all her leadership in Congress. We are confident that a Democrat will win this seat and continue to work to change the direction of the country.
"On behalf of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, we wish Congresswoman Darlene Hooley our best wishes."
[crossposted to Loaded Orygun, Oregon's Progressive Community...]
One of the more frustrating things for many Oregonians has been the blind spot of the Democratic delegation for courageously taking on the mantle of Constitutional stewardship, and honestly considering impeachment proceedings against the VP and President. None of the seven Members of Congress from the Beaver State have even hinted that impeachment was "on the table."
On this Thursday, the flood of polls has come. Most of the credit for that goes to the good folks at RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics, whose MajorityWatch series gives us new polls in a whopping 32 House districts. In the name of getting off the computer before 3 AM, I will let Kos' front page summary of the MW polls suffice.
In addition, we have new numbers in 15 additional seats. Also, Rasmussen tracking now has Bush at 44%. There are also two national polls today, which show Bush job approval at 40% (Fox) and 41% (Cook/RT). Among likely voters, they have the Democrats leading the generic ballot by nine (Fox; 50-41) and eleven (Cook/RT; 51-40) points, respectively.
Follow me after the jump for the individual numbers.
Supporting candidates who represent progressive values, and those who are taking the fight to the GOP are crucial, and "the west" is going to be a crucial region not just in the upcoming election, but going forward as we grow the party and take back our country. I have chosen several candidates when I created my ActBlue page, and am asking for your support by contributing to them via ActBlue. These races will greatly help win not just my home state of Oregon, but along with another crucial Northwest race (Darcy Burner in Washington's 8th) will be vital in changing the direction of our region, and country.
(The races I am asking fellow Oregonians and people in the northwest to support are below the fold)
